World Steel Prices & Steel Markets Review - The Week That Was

World steel markets remain in a state of shock andsaid to be around $500-540 PMT CFR which is less
some panic as anything approaching normal demand isthan half their levels at the height of the market in
yet to materialise. In the week we learned that overJuly 2008. Chinese producers continue to reduce
half of USA Blast Furnaces have been idled, capacityoutputs and to temporarily lay off workers as a
reductions at the major EU producers were in excessresponse to the fall in demand. As yet, the
of 35% and that even some of the low cost leaderswithdrawal of Chinese export duties has not yet
in the C. I. S were also facing production cutbacks ofstimulated demand for Chinese steel products as
more than 20%. With the Christmas break upon us,expected by the Central Governnment.
many steel consumers are already makingSo is it all doom and gloom or are there any shards
contingency plans to take extended breaks as theirof light in an otherwise depressing scenario ? During
order books are not capable of supporting normalthe week a further albeit modest uplift in billet prices
working patterns. USA HRC steel prices continue towas seen in Asian markets with steel prices
remain under extreme pressure at the current leveltransacted at $ 415-420 CFR. CIS rebar was also
of $ 600 PMT FOB Mill despite the enormous capacitybeing quoted at $500-540 FOB for December
cutbacks.shipment representing a c $50 PMT increase albeit
The Tier 1 integrated mills are attempting to hold thisthere is no firm evidence of deals being done at this
price line but appear to be undermined by Tier 2level. In Spain Celsa announced a Euro 30-50 PMT
producers who are using a scrap based EAFincrease in rebar and merchant bar prices and whilst
production production route and are therefore able toinitially met with some market scepticism, some
take immediate advantage of the precipitous fall inevidence is emerging of acceptance of some modest
scrap prices and pass these on through their supplyincreases in these products in Iberia. However, as
chain with a speed that conventional Blast Furnacewelcome as these examples are a consensus is
route producers are unable to do given that they areemerging that these increases in the price of steel
typically tied in to some form of annual price contractmay just reflect buyers having to cover short term
with iron ore suppliers. Despite some HRC bookings inshortages in their demand and that there is a risk in
Vietnam last week, the Asian markets continue to besteel producers misinterpreting these signals as
very quiet with a 'wait and see' approach beingsignalling a general market recovery.
adopted by major buyers. Prevailing HRC prices are